Today's Mini-Lecture: Statistics

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.

99% of statisticians surveyed agree with the above statement.

A New York Times/CBS poll this week shows that 45 percent of Americans believe Mr. Hussein was "personally involved" in Sept. 11, about the same figure as a month ago.

-- The impact of Bush linking 9/11 and Iraq

Statistics, my friends, as anyone with some rigorous math behind them will tell you, are mostly bullshit. Why?

It's very easy to make statistics say what you want them to say. Without even trying.

For example, suppose you conduct a poll of 100 people from the same region of a Bible Belt Midwestern town, in a consistently-Republican-voting county. And of those 100 people, 45 of them answer your question, "Do you agree with US government reports that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was directly involved in the 9/11 attacks?" with a 'Yes'. 55 do not.

You then can state, in writing, that 45 percent of Americans believe Mr. Hussein was "personally involved" in Sept. 11. You asked 100 people, and 45 said 'Yes'. That's 45%, right?

Yes and no. You only asked 100 people. Was that 100 people a representative sampling of all Americans? No. Is 100 people enough to get a representative sampling? 100 people is nothing, when they're all from the same region, and you're talking about America, with population groups whose subdivisions (where people frequently line up along ideological lines) are larger (substantially larger) then the set of people you surveyed.

What you've just done is conducted a completely non-scientific poll. No prep work to determine how representative your sample is. No large population surveyed several times, with the results then combined. No standard deviation calculations. No sharing of your data with third-party analysts to validate your results. You've just collected 100 useless responses. But all the article in your local paper says is "45% of Americans believe Mr. Hussein was "personally involved" in Sept. 11."

And the average reader might even believe it. Because numbers don't lie, do they?

No, they don't lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth, either.

So, the next time you find yourself face to face with a statistic, ask the following questions:

1. How many people were surveyed?
2. What demographics of race, religion, economic position, location, country of origin, and political party were surveyed?
3. Could this be just a bunch of hooey?

And pay close attention to the answers.

Not Out Of My Pocket, Thank You

Idiocy abounds, I see. (Which doesn't make today much different than yesterday, does it?)

Bill proposed to allow return of U.S. vets buried in France

If you, Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite of Florida, would like to locate and solicit the individual permission from each appropriate relative of WWI/WWII soldiers, who died in service and were buried in France, and pay out of your own personal pocket to have their remains exhumed after 60-80 years and returned to the US, and cover the costs of memorial services and burial on American soil, be my guest.

If you want me to pay for it, kindly fuck off.

At least one person involved has their head screwed on straight:

Steve Thomas, a spokesman for the American Legion, said the veterans' group would need some time to look at the legislation. He said the American Legion has always respected the wishes of the families concerning those who died in combat, but noted that "a lot of people may not want to repatriate their fallen loved ones, separating them from their comrades, to make a statement about the French government."

Wasted Paper

So, purely rhetorically, I ask, what good does it do me to get an NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) waiver to have an on/off switch for my air bag installed, if I can't find a shop willing to do the work?

I'm 4'11" tall. My sternum is 6 inches away from the steering column of my primary vehicle. An airbag takes at least 8 inches to deploy. I am firmly in the designated risk group(s), and the appropriate federal authority agrees.

I understand that any reputable service shop (whether a Toyota dealer or someone else) will want to ensure that they aren't liable for legal action in the event that they install such a switch and the air bag being on or off is a key element in some subsequent accident. However, that's the whole point of the waiver, isn't it? The waiver is their insurance.

If I can't have this work done legally, I have few options:

1. Do it illegally. (pros: it would be done. cons: might get caught.)
2. Live with it. (pros: everyone's happy. cons: except for me. Although, if I'm dead, no one can tell.)
3. Become an afficionado of classic cars/motorcycles, and drive a vehicle that doesn't, and never will, have an airbag. (pros: no airbag. cons: I love my truck. I want to drive my truck.)

You're Kidding, it wasn't a Joke?

Our instructor (at the Rational CQ training I was at this week) threw up a web page on the projector (connected to his laptop) from some fake-senator's website about "French fries" becoming "freedom fries", and the first thing that popped out of my mouth was,

(mad peals of laughter) Hey! Is that the new Onion? That's great!

Not a fake-senator's website at all, evidently.

All I see, again, and again, is smoke and mirrors. What, I ask you, is the government hiding behind said smoke and said mirrors? What? What? What?

Hi, Mom!

Y'know, when the camera pans past at the big game, and you wave, show a v for victory, and mouth 'hi, Mom!'?

Hi, Mom!

Been out of the office for the past 3 days, when means connection-free for the past 5, due to the weekend. Hence the lack of posting. However, the reason for being out was interesting (Rational's ClearQuest administration training, a 3-day course) and useful. If you are coming to Rational products brand-new, I would recommend whatever site/web-based training you can get. And -- I hate to admit this -- the commute from Oceanside to Irvine (approx. 45 miles) was easier, I swear to you, then the 27 mile commute from Oceanside to my office here in San Diego. No, no, I'm serious.

This with the added bonus of driving even more extremely conscientiously than normal, due to the knowledge that my brakes were worn down to the nub. However, I know how to drive that truck -- sure, I wouldn't have driven it in SF, but Irvine-Oceanside? Care, knowledge of one's vehicle, and diligence, hey, now, let's say it again, diligence, as in paying fucking attention to what you are doing. The world would be a better place if more people paid attention to what they were doing. But that would involve thinking, which I know, especially evident in recent activity conducted allegedly in my name (as a member of the American public) is too much to ask.

How much longer do I have to wait to vote Junior out of office? Is it time yet? Have we learned whatever karmic lesson was due?

Hi, Mom!

Friday Five

OK, I don't plan to make a habit of this, but what the hell...

1. What was the last song you heard? Depeche Mode's "Personal Jesus", in the truck on the way to lunch.
2. What were the last two movies you saw? In the theatre? "The Two Towers" and "Chamber of Secrets". On TV? "Lilies of the Field" (Sidney Poitier, Lilia Skala, 1963), and "The Princess Diaries" (might not count, surfed in after the first 20 minutes).
3. What were the last three things you purchased. Hair dye, dinner, gasoline.
4. What four things do you need to do this weekend? Re-dye my hair -- moving from this week's tropical bird look (mango-red, green, and blue) to either blond or titian. Clean the apartment. Write a chapter of the novel. Laundry.
5. What are the last 5 people you talked to? In person? My boss, Janis, the guy at the drive-thru (does that even count?), the cashiers and customers at my local Rite-Aid. (It was a long line.)

Diabetes and Upper Leg Length

Terribly short? Have some diabetes.

"The length of one's thighs has a relationship to height. However, height alone is not linked to a higher risk for diabetes or insulin resistance, once other factors are considered."

Logically, it's probable that there's a relationship between upper leg length and certain illnesses because extremely short people may have unusual reasons for being short. If there are factors contributing to stunted growth, those factors may be affecting you in other ways. Plus? It's easier to be chubby when you're short. It doesn't take much, and weight is a known factor in developing diabetes.

Libraries Under Siege

(that fact alone is not exactly news)


Foes lock horns in Web filtering case

"If the Supreme Court rules that libraries must provide access to all materials, then our libraries will become nothing more than glorified government-funded adult bookstores. We support libraries with tax dollars because they provide valuable information and education materials. If libraries aren't allowed to protect kids, we have to question if we should use tax dollars to support them." Congressman Ernest Istook (R-OK)

This is an outright lie.

How does freedom to access all information translate to ONLY porn, 24 hours a day? In fact, the opposite is true. When you censor, you restrict content. You make the set smaller than it is naturally. As long as there is non-porn information out there, and there is, then unrestricted access ensures your ability to get to it. Because it isn't accidentally blocked by inaccurate software, or banned by someone who thinks "James and the Giant Peach" must be a dirty book because peaches make them think of their wife's ass.

The only way to keep providing valuable information and educational material is by being able to acess it freely.

In addition, libraries are not for children, per se. Libraries are information repositories. Libraries are for everyone.

You may note many libraries have children's areas -- areas with content and activities oriented around children's needs and for their use. Is the whole library a children's area? No. Is the Library of Congress only for people under the age of 12? No.

A library is

A place in which literary and artistic materials, such as books, periodicals, newspapers, pamphlets, prints, records, and tapes, are kept for reading, reference, or lending.

A collection of such materials, especially when systematically arranged.

An institution or foundation maintaining such a collection.

Where does it say, for children only?

Excerpt:SW:Blog

Word from Alliance is that new Imperial station under construction. Significant threat. Must get plans. OMG!
posted by Leia, 02-02-02

Housekeeper off tonight. Had to cook for myself. Macaroni and cheese! Rebel contact at knoxit race next week.
posted by Leia, 02-04-02.

Was summoned during Senate deliberations, found encrypted message waiting for me. We're a go on the race tonight. Meeting contact who can introduce me to someone with access to plans.
posted by Leia, 02-13-02.

Race was total wash. Contact dead. This sucks. I need some R&R.
posted by Leia, 02-13-02.

Spent the day shopping. 12 pair new shoes!
posted by Leia, 02-14-02.

Finally. Cocktail party tonight, hoping to get that cute aide drunk and weasel plans out of him. Aides always know everything.
posted by Leia, 02-21-02.

Got Death Star plans! OMG!! If only the guys can find a structural flaw or something. This thing is enormous. Stuffed the plans in R2D2. Am already aboard ship. Terrible hangover.
posted by Leia, 02-22-02.

The More Things Change

"Actuated by these motives, and apprehensive of disturbing the repose of an unsettled reign, Julian surprised the world by an edict which was not unworthy of a statesman or a philosopher. He extended to all the inhabitants of the Roman world the benefits of a free and equal toleration; and the only hardship which he inflicted on the Christians was to deprive them of the power of tormenting their fellow-subjects, whom they stigmatised with the odious titles of idolaters and heretics."

- Edward Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Chapter 23

Religion and Government

"The influence of the clergy, in an age of superstition, might be usefully employed to assert the rights of mankind; but so intimate is the connection between the throne and the altar, that the banner of the church has very seldom been seen on the side of the people. A martial nobility and stubborn commons, possessed of arms, tenacious of property, and collected into constitutional assemblies, form the only balance capable of preserving a free constitution against enterprises of an aspiring prince."

- Edward Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, Chapter 3

http://www.his.com/cgi-bin/fortune.gibbon

And What About You?


Dollmont asks, "What would you do with $100,000,000,000?". In a nutshell: Improve the educational infrastructure in your country or depose a dictator?

Well, heck. Which one of these is better for the global community as a whole? What do I get to replace the deposed dictator with? How long will it take? Does everyone under the dictator have to die?

I know from personal experience that if you pay teachers what they're worth, they'll give even more energy, time, and dedication to their students. Do you know how many teachers shell out part of their paycheck every year just to keep the classroom lurching forward? Aside from the fact that teaching will look more attractive as a potential profession, if you can actually live on what they pay you.

If I had any integer followed by a gross of zeros? You bet I'd be giving it to teachers. There's looking to the long term, and then there's looking to the really long term, by investing in subsequent generations.

Onward, Pioneer

Though we'll never hear from you again. Pioneer 10, "the little spacecraft that could", was the first human craft to take detailed pictures of Jupiter, and the first human object to venture outside of our solar system. After 30 years, the power to its radio is finally dead, and the project team has "hung up their headphones".

Biblio:
One Giant Step Lasts for 30 Years

Pioneer 10 Sends Last Signal to Earth

Long Goodbye From Space's Pioneer

Pioneer 10 & 11 NASA's site for the project.

Cool Science

Neat stuff with water at the International Space Station.

"Quite by accident, we have made a most surprising observation," reports Don Pettit, the science officer of the International Space Station. It happened during his spare time on a Saturday morning last month. Pettit was preparing to make some weightless soap bubbles--just for fun--when he discovered a very curious property of water in space.

Saturday Morning Science

Shocked and Ashamed

Canadian in Passport Fiasco.

"A Toronto woman coming home from India says she was pulled aside at Chicago's O'Hare Airport, accused of using a fake Canadian passport, denied consular assistance and threatened with jail."

This is completely shameful. I feel like America has become Microsoft or something -- big, fat, willing to throw its weight around without regard for anybody, and thinks it can get away with anything. I am actually repulsed. How can this be my country? My wonderful land of opportunity and hope? This is the kind of story that you read about in some unstable totalitarian fly-by-night Third World joint with no regard for rights and the law, or worse, no rights to begin with. Not America. America is supposed to be a rufuge. I'm appalled.

Ms. Cruz, I'm so terribly, terribly sorry.

My country needs a swift kick in the ass, desperately.